secular-trends

# Knowledge Frameworks — {SKILL_NAME}

This file augments the skill methodology with practitioner frameworks, case precedents,
and sector-specific analysis rubrics from the agentii knowledge base (spec 037).
It is progressively disclosed — loaded on demand, not at skill activation (FR-014).

## How to Use

Before executing the analysis, scan the relevant frameworks below for the target sector
and analysis type. Where a framework applies, incorporate its methodology alongside the
standard protocol. Cite knowledge entries by their `/v/knowledge/{citation_id}` link.

## Practitioner Frameworks

### Fundamental Analysis (L2)
- **Fisher Scuttlebutt Method**: Channel checks, supplier interviews, customer surveys — validate management claims through primary research.
- **Morningstar Moats**: Network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantage, efficient scale — score competitive durability.
- **Greenblatt Magic Formula**: Rank on earnings yield + ROIC — quantitative screen for quality-at-a-reasonable-price.
- **Mauboussin Expectations Investing**: Price-implied expectations vs. fundamentals — identify the gap.

### Management Assessment
- **CEO/CFO track record**: Past capital allocation decisions, M&A history, share buyback timing.
- **Incentive alignment**: Compensation structure, insider ownership, option grants.

### Sector-Specific Playbooks
- **Healthcare (Pharma/Biotech)**: Pipeline depth analysis, FDA catalyst calendar, patent cliff exposure, drug pricing risk.
- **Technology**: Adoption S-curves, network effects quantification, R&D efficiency, platform ecosystem lock-in.
- **Financials**: Spread analysis (NIM), credit cycle positioning, loan loss reserve adequacy, capital return capacity.
- **Consumer**: Brand strength metrics, unit economics, channel mix trends, customer acquisition cost payback.

## Historical Analogues

When the current situation matches a known pattern, query `search_by_analogue` with the
appropriate `market_regime`/`event_type`/`company_situation` tags. Cite relevant cases as
precedent.

## References

All frameworks sourced from `gold.knowledge_entries` (spec 037). See `contracts/citation-and-memory.md`
for citation format conventions.

# secular-trends — Analyst Mode Definitions

Extracted from SKILL.md for progressive disclosure (US5). The skill body keeps a pointer under `## Methodology → Analyst Modes`.

### Mode: evaluate-company-s-exposure-to-major-secular-technology-trends

**Display name**: Evaluate company's exposure to major secular technology trends

<!-- ported_from: references/prompts/4/4_1_optimized.yaml -->

**Focus**: Evaluate the company's exposure to and alignment with major secular technology trends.
 (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- `get_company_profile`
- `list_sources`
- `read_source_outline`
- `read_source_pages`
- `search_keyword_in_source`
- `search_xbrl_facts`

 - relevance_assessment
 - summary_findings
 - trend_exposure_matrix
- **validation_requirements**:
 - quantitative_support
 - source_diversity
 - temporal_coverage

### Mode: deep-dive-ai-trend-assessment-for-companies-with-identified-ai-exposure

**Display name**: Deep dive AI trend assessment for companies with identified AI exposure

<!-- ported_from: references/prompts/4/4_2_1_optimized.yaml -->

**Focus**: _(no objective field in source YAML)_.
 (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- `list_sources`
- `read_source_pages`
- `search_keyword_in_source`
- `search_xbrl_facts`

### Mode: deep-dive-data-value-trend-assessment-for-companies-with-identified-data-exposure

**Display name**: Deep dive data value trend assessment for companies with identified data exposure

<!-- ported_from: references/prompts/4/4_2_2_optimized.yaml -->

**Focus**: _(no objective field in source YAML)_.
 (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- `list_sources`
- `read_source_pages`
- `search_keyword_in_source`
- `search_xbrl_facts`

### Mode: deep-dive-ev-trend-assessment-for-companies-with-identified-ev-exposure

**Display name**: Deep dive EV trend assessment for companies with identified EV exposure

<!-- ported_from: references/prompts/4/4_2_3_optimized.yaml -->

**Focus**: _(no objective field in source YAML)_.
 (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- `list_sources`
- `read_source_pages`
- `search_keyword_in_source`
- `search_xbrl_facts`

### Mode: deep-dive-analysis-for-quantum-computing-renewable-energy-and-other-emerging-tech-trends

**Display name**: Deep dive analysis for quantum computing, renewable energy, and other emerging tech trends

<!-- ported_from: references/prompts/4/4_2_4_optimized.yaml -->

**Focus**: _(no objective field in source YAML)_.
 (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- `list_sources`
- `read_source_pages`
- `search_keyword_in_source`
- `search_xbrl_facts`

### Mode: evaluate-company-s-strategic-position-within-identified-technology-trends

**Display name**: Evaluate company's strategic position within identified technology trends

<!-- ported_from: references/prompts/4/4_2_optimized.yaml -->

**Focus**: Build on the Key Trend Exposure assessment to evaluate the company's strategic position.
 (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- `get_company_profile`
- `list_sources`
- `read_source_outline`
- `read_source_pages`
- `search_keyword_in_source`
- `search_xbrl_facts`

 - supporting_evidence
 - trend_header
- **validation_framework**:
 - competitive_benchmarking
 - consistency_check
 - financial_validation

### Mode: evaluate-company-s-capacity-and-readiness-to-invest-in-technology-transformation

**Display name**: Evaluate company's capacity and readiness to invest in technology transformation

<!-- ported_from: references/prompts/4/4_3_optimized.yaml -->

**Focus**: Evaluate the company's readiness and capacity to invest in technology as a strategic lever.
 (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- `list_sources`
- `read_source_outline`
- `read_source_pages`
- `search_keyword_in_source`
- `search_xbrl_facts`

 - citation_format
 - citation_requirements
- **tabular_assessment**:
 - dimension_specifications
 - required_fields

### Mode: assess-the-significance-of-technology-trends-in-current-investment-debate-and-market-perception

**Display name**: Assess the significance of technology trends in current investment debate and market perception

<!-- ported_from: references/prompts/4/4_4_optimized.yaml -->

**Focus**: Determine to what extent AI or any other major technology trend (data, automation, EV,.
 (rewritten via tool-name-map.json:system_v2_7)

- `list_sources`
- `read_source_pages`
- `search_keyword_in_source`

 - management_commentary
 - price_action_sentiment
 - sell_side_commentary
- **overall_summary_template**: [Technology Trend] is [Significant/Moderate/Insignificant] in the current investment
debate on [Company]. [2-3 sentences synthesizing evidence across sell-side commentary,
management emphasis, and market reaction. Explain why the technology trend matters or
doesn't matter to investors.]

- **structured_assessment**:
 - required_fields

<!-- END port-dimension-prompts methodology + modes -->

# secular-trends — Output Structure (full template)

Extracted from SKILL.md for progressive disclosure (US5). The skill body keeps a compact summary under `## Output Structure`.

The final deliverable MUST be written as a markdown file to the workspace using the convention :

```
{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_secular-trends_{affix}.md
```

Where `affix` is a short descriptive slug (e.g., `trend-impact`, `tailwind-headwind`, `theme-exposure`, `secular-positioning`). Examples:

- `LLY/2026-05-25_1430_secular-trends_trend-impact.md`
- `NVDA/2026-05-25_1545_secular-trends_theme-exposure.md`

The path is RELATIVE to the agent's invocation cwd. Skills MUST NOT write under absolute paths.

**Citations & memory**: follow `contracts/citation-and-memory.md` — ≥1 citation per 200 words; every material fact, table row, and metric is immediately followed by its inline clickable `https://agentii.ai/v/{ticker}/{citation_id}/{N}` link; a bottom **Citations** section provides a non-duplicative roll-up index; the closing TUI reply includes a compact **Key Citations** list (headline 5–10 facts) of clickable `/v/` URLs; and append the run to `agentii.md` per `contracts/agentii-md-schema.md`.

# secular-trends — Tool Fallbacks

Extracted from SKILL.md for progressive disclosure (US5).

| Tool | Failure Mode | Fallback Action | Coverage Annotation |
|------|-------------|-----------------|---------------------|
| `read_source_pages` | SQL error / PROXY_ERROR | Use `search_keyword_in_source(document_id, keyword)` if document_id known; otherwise `search_documents` with same query | "source file unavailable; used keyword search instead" |
| `read_source_deep_outline` | PROXY_ERROR / 404 | Use lightweight `read_source_outline` and flag `deep_outline_degraded: true` | "deep outline unavailable; used lightweight page map instead" |
| `read_source_outline` | PROXY_ERROR / 404 | Use `list_sources` for document-level metadata | "page map unavailable; used document listing instead" |
| `list_xbrl_concepts` | Timeout / 503 | Use direct `search_xbrl_facts` with standard US-GAAP concepts (Revenues, NetIncomeLoss, EarningsPerShareDiluted, OperatingIncomeLoss, Assets) | "concept discovery skipped due to timeout; using standard US-GAAP concepts" |
| `get_company_fiscal_calendar` | Cross-validation failed | Use XBRL-derived period grid from `search_xbrl_facts` `period_end` dates | "fiscal calendar mismatch; using XBRL-derived period grid" |
| `search_unified` | Intermittent error | Use parallel `search_documents` + `search_xbrl_facts` with the same query | "unified search unavailable; used parallel document + XBRL search" |
| `batch_search` | PROXY_ERROR | Use sequential individual calls (one per sub-query) | "batch search unavailable; used sequential calls" |

Tool errors are retried ONCE with the fallback action before escalating to the retrieval gaps failure policy. If both Layer 2 and Layer 3 tools are unavailable, enter document access degradation mode (structured data + metadata only, flag output as degraded).