{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "skill_name": "product-roadmapping-and-portfolio",
  "evals": [
    {
      "id": "competing-strategic-bets",
      "prompt": "Two strategic bets compete for Now capacity: 'Payments Migration' (High confidence, 12 team-weeks) and 'Notification Overhaul' (Medium confidence, 8 team-weeks). Available capacity: 15 team-weeks. Build Now/Next/Later and recommend sequencing.",
      "expected_output": "Now/Next/Later view respecting 15 tw WIP limit, at most one bet in Now (12+8=20>15), deferred bet in Next with explicit rationale, distinguishes capacity constraint (evidence) from sequencing choice (decision).",
      "assertions": [
        "Now column does not exceed 15 team-weeks.",
        "At least one bet in Next with explicit rationale.",
        "Output distinguishes capacity data (evidence) from recommendation (commitment).",
        "Both bets have continue/pause/kill criteria.",
        "Recommendation references confidence levels."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "dependency-invalidates-date",
      "prompt": "Bet 'Mobile Onboarding Redesign' in Next with Q3 start date, dependent on 'Design System v2' completing by end of Q2. Design System v2 reports 3-month delay. Update roadmap and bet record.",
      "expected_output": "Explicitly invalidates Q3 start date, re-sequences with new provisional date, records dependency invalidation in bet record, communicates change. Labels delay as evidence, new sequencing as provisional.",
      "assertions": [
        "Q3 start date explicitly flagged as invalidated.",
        "New provisional horizon with rationale.",
        "Dependency invalidation recorded with specific evidence.",
        "Stakeholder communication included.",
        "New date labeled as provisional, not firm commitment."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "low-confidence-opportunity",
      "prompt": "Stakeholder proposes 'AI-Powered Search'. Evidence: single customer request and competitor announcement. No quantitative data, no experiment. Wants it in Now. Evaluate and recommend.",
      "expected_output": "Bet record with Low confidence and explicit rationale. Placed in Later or Next with validation gate, not Now. Distinguishes customer request (weak evidence), competitor announcement (assumption), stakeholder desire (opinion), recommendation (decision).",
      "assertions": [
        "Confidence rated Low with explicit rationale.",
        "Bet NOT placed in Now.",
        "Output labels evidence, assumption, and opinion distinctly.",
        "Specific evidence needed to increase confidence listed.",
        "Defines a path to validation."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "capacity-shortfall",
      "prompt": "Now bets: 'Checkout Flow' (6 tw, High), 'Search v2' (8 tw, Medium), 'Accessibility Audit' (3 tw, High), 'API Gateway Migration' (5 tw, Medium). Capacity: 16 tw, overhead: 4 tw. Product lead insists all stay in Now. Address over-commitment.",
      "expected_output": "Calculates effective capacity as 12 tw, identifies over-commitment (22 vs 12), recommends moving at least 10 tw of bets to Next. Labels capacity as evidence, recommendation as decision.",
      "assertions": [
        "Effective capacity calculated as 12 team-weeks.",
        "Over-commitment explicitly quantified (22 vs 12).",
        "At least one bet recommended for Next with rationale.",
        "Capacity labeled as evidence, recommendation as decision.",
        "Rationale references confidence, alignment, or dependency health."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "stop-bet-with-evidence",
      "prompt": "Bet 'Personalized Dashboard' in Now for 6 months. Hypothesis: +15% DAU. After 2 cycles: A/B test 2% lift (p=0.31, not significant), 8/10 users didn't notice, infrastructure costs 20% of engineering capacity. Bet owner wants one more cycle. Evaluate against kill criteria.",
      "expected_output": "Recommendation to KILL based on evidence. References kill criteria, distinguishes quantitative evidence (A/B test, capacity data) from qualitative (interviews) from opinion (bet owner). Records revisit criteria. Claims are scoped to the harness, model, fixtures, and revision under test.",
      "assertions": [
        "Recommendation explicitly KILL, not continue or rescope.",
        "A/B test result (p=0.31, 2% lift) cited as quantitative evidence.",
        "Capacity cost (20%) cited as evidence against continuing.",
        "Bet owner desire labeled as opinion, not evidence.",
        "Revisit criteria defined."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "route-ongoing-project-control",
      "prompt": "Portfolio priorities are agreed. We need weekly milestone tracking, schedule recovery and a project scope-change decision for the selected migration.",
      "expected_output": "Routes ongoing project control to technical-project-management instead of changing the outcome roadmap.",
      "assertions": [
        "Routes ongoing milestone and recovery work to technical-project-management.",
        "Does not substitute a Now/Next/Later roadmap for the requested project control.",
        "Keeps detailed approved work breakdown with implementation-planning."
      ]
    }
  ]
}

# Dependency and Confidence View

Map cross-bet dependencies and calibrate portfolio confidence.

## Dependency Types
- Blocking (A→B), Enabling (A-- >B), Shared-capacity (A||B), External (A→EXT)

## Mapping
List all bets → identify dependencies → group into clusters → assess health (Independent/Exposed/Fragile/Blocked) → recalibrate confidence.

## Dependency Invalidation
When a dependency is cancelled/delayed: pause dependent bet, reassess, record, communicate.

## Confidence Calibration
At each review: new evidence? assumptions invalidated? dependency changes? Three Medium reviews without movement = team not learning.

# Discovery Brief — product-roadmapping-and-portfolio

Reconciles duplicated prioritization-framework references. Phase-2 discovery of issue #189, Milestone 4.

## Where RICE, Kano, OST, and MoSCoW Live

- **RICE:** Canonical owner `product-methodology/references/rice-framework.md`. Strategic summary in `product-strategy/references/product-strategy.md`.
- **Kano:** `product-strategy/references/product-strategy.md` — single canonical location.
- **OST:** Strategic in `product-strategy`, tactical in `product-methodology`.
- **MoSCoW:** `product-methodology/references/moscow-prioritization.md` — single canonical owner.

## Ownership Boundary

This skill owns: outcome roadmaps, portfolio-level choices, bet management, scenario planning, review cadence, evidence-to-roadmap connection.

Routes to (does not own): RICE/MoSCoW/OST to product-methodology; Kano/OST-strategic to product-strategy; capital allocation to strategy-frameworks; delivery flow to kanban-guru; evidence to product-analytics-and-measurement (prose); implementation to implementation-planning (prose); experimentation/adoption/lifecycle to their respective skills (prose).

## Non-goals
Does NOT turn roadmaps into project schedules. Does NOT re-explain RICE/Kano/OST/MoSCoW. Does NOT replace capital-allocation or delivery-flow management.

## Design Decisions
1. Now/Next/Later over timeline as default
2. Evidence/assumptions/commitments/options distinction in every artifact
3. Portfolio + individual product with same artifacts
4. Continue/pause/kill/revisit criteria mandatory
5. No framework duplication — routing only

# Outcome Roadmapping

Build roadmaps around outcomes, not features or dates. Default view: Now/Next/Later.

## Now/Next/Later Structure
- **Now:** Committed, team assigned, WIP-limited. Entry: evidence, capacity, dependencies, criteria.
- **Next:** Validated, sequenced, provisional. Entry: validated opportunity, capacity estimate.
- **Later:** Options only, no commitment. Entry: strategic alignment.

## Capacity
Available = (team × cycle) − (overhead + ongoing). Overhead ~20-30%. If Now exceeds capacity, move lowest-confidence bet to Next.

## Outcomes
Define as measurable "from → to" statements. Every bet connects to an outcome. Portfolio outcomes form a hierarchy.

## Anti-Patterns
Feature-list roadmap → use outcomes. Date-first → use Now/Next/Later. No capacity → enforce WIP. No kill criteria → document them. Later graveyard → review quarterly. Conflating evidence/assumptions → label explicitly.

Route evidence to `product-analytics-and-measurement`.

# Roadmap Review Cadence

Design and run roadmap reviews producing decisions, records, and stakeholder narratives.

## Cadence
Portfolio: quarterly. Product: monthly. Bet-level: weekly/biweekly.

## Decision Rights
Later→Next: product lead. Next→Now: product + engineering lead. Pause: bet owner recommends. Kill: product lead decides. Add to Later: any stakeholder proposes.

## Review Inputs
Updated roadmap, bet summaries, dependency health, capacity report, killed/paused log. Portfolio: add cross-product deps, capacity overview, scenario review.

## Outputs
Review record, updated roadmap, updated bet records, stakeholder communication (executive/team/external).

## Anti-Patterns
Review without decisions → end every item with decision or "no change." No decision log → record everything. One-size communication → tailor. Cadence drift → calendar-lock. No evidence → require updates. Silence after kill → communicate with context.

# Scenario Comparison

Compare alternative futures for consequential roadmap decisions.

## When: significant investment, irreversible architecture, market-entry timing.

## Method
Define critical uncertainties → build Now/Next/Later per scenario → identify robust/conditional/fragile bets → identify no-regret moves → document, recommend, define pivot triggers.

## Anti-Patterns
Too many scenarios (limit 2-4). Straw-man alternatives. No pivot triggers. Scenario as prediction. Skipping comparison.

# Strategic Bets

Define and manage strategic bets with explicit confidence, risk, dependencies, and criteria.

## Bet Record
- Identity: name, owner, outcome hypothesis
- Evidence & Confidence: High/Medium/Low with explicit rationale
- Risk: value, usability, feasibility, business viability (H/M/L each)
- Dependencies: internal, external, shared-capacity
- Capacity: direct + indirect + ongoing (team-weeks)
- Criteria: continue, pause, kill, revisit — mandatory for Now bets

## Portfolio Comparison
Present dimensions side-by-side (alignment, confidence, impact, capacity, risk, time-to-evidence). No composite score — route to `product-methodology` for RICE.

## Lifecycle
IDENTIFIED (Later) → VALIDATED (Next) → COMMITTED (Next) → ACTIVE (Now) → EVALUATED → {CONTINUE, PAUSE, KILL}

## Anti-Patterns
No kill criteria → document them. Confidence without rationale → cite evidence. No pause criteria → define them. Composite scoring → present separately. No owner → assign one.

# Strategic Bet Record

## Bet: [Name] | Owner: [Name] | Created: [Date] | Updated: [Date]

### Hypothesis
> If we [action], then [change] because [rationale].
Primary outcome: [Link]

### Evidence & Confidence
Confidence: [H/M/L]
| Source | Finding | Strength |
|---|---|---|
Rationale: [Cite evidence]

### Assumptions
| Assumption | Validation | If false... |
|---|---|---|

### Risk
| Type | Description | Prob | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value | | H/M/L | H/M/L | |
| Usability | | H/M/L | H/M/L | |
| Feasibility | | H/M/L | H/M/L | |
| Business | | H/M/L | H/M/L | |

### Dependencies
| Dep | Type | Status | If unresolved |
|---|---|---|---|
Health: [Independent/Exposed/Fragile/Blocked]

### Capacity
| Category | tw |
|---|---|
| Direct | |
| Indirect | |
| Ongoing | |
| Total | |

### Criteria
Continue: [Evidence]
Pause: [Conditions]
Kill: [Evidence]
Revisit: [Conditions]

### Horizon: [Now/Next/Later] — Rationale: [Why]

### Lifecycle
| Date | Event | Conf | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|

# Outcome Roadmap Template

## Roadmap: [Name] | Date: [YYYY-MM-DD] | Next review: [YYYY-MM-DD]

## Outcomes
| Outcome | Current | Target | Evidence source |
|---|---|---|---|

## NOW (WIP: [X] tw, Allocated: [Y] tw)
| Bet | Outcome | Conf | Capacity | Dependencies | Risk | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

## NEXT
| Bet | Outcome | Conf | Est capacity | Dependencies | Entry evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|

## LATER
| Bet | Outcome | Why here | What moves to Next? |
|---|---|---|---|

## Capacity Summary
| Column | tw | % |
|---|---|---|
| Now | | |
| Overhead | | |
| Available | | |

## Decisions
| Decision | Rationale | By | Date |
|---|---|---|---|

## Communication Plan
| Audience | What | Format | When |
|---|---|---|---|

# Roadmap Review Record

## Review: [Product/Portfolio] — [Type] | Date: [Date] | Facilitator: [Name]

### 1. Outcome Check
| Outcome | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|

### 2. Now Review
| Bet | Conf | Progress | Decision | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capacity: [Allocated/WIP] — [Status]

### 3. Next Review
| Bet | Conf | Ready? | Blocker |
|---|---|---|---|

### 4. Later Scan
Escalations: [List] | Removals: [List]

### 5. Scenario Check
| Uncertainty | Prev | Current | Change? |
|---|---|---|---|

### Decisions
| # | Decision | Owner | Due |
|---|---|---|---|

### Communication
Executive: [1-paragraph summary]
Team: [Changes, deps, capacity]
External: [Outcomes — no internal data]

Next review: [Date] | Focus: [Topics]