Claude Skill

investment-decision

Produce an evidence-linked investment decision with an explicit bull case, opposing bear case, thesis invalidation conditions, bounded action, and reconciled order/FX amounts. Use when an agent must analyze a security or portfolio action and publish a verifiable decision artifact

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Part of kcnyu/clawock — 17 skills

Install

skills CLI npx skills add https://github.com/KCNyu/clawock/tree/master/src/clawock/workflows/packs/investment-decision

Claude Code claude plugin marketplace add https://llmmart.ai/marketplace.json && claude plugin install kcnyu-clawock@llmmart

Git git clone https://github.com/KCNyu/clawock.git

The skills CLI installs just this skill, for any of its supported agents. Claude Code installs the whole kcnyu/clawock collection as a plugin from our marketplace. Git is the plain clone.

Skill manifest

Investment decision workflow

Use this workflow inside the current agent runtime. Do not launch another agent or model through clawock: the current runtime owns research, conversation, memory, skills, tools, repair loops, and permissions.

Run

Run clawock run prepare --workspace <workspace> and retain the printed request_file, run_id, generation_id, workflow version, and certified context.
Research with the current runtime's normal tools. Collect traceable evidence observed no later than the decision's as_of time.
Write decision.json using the decision contract and its linked JSON Schema. Include at least one supporting and one opposing evidence item. The bull and bear cases must cite their evidence rather than merely asserting conclusions.
State thesis invalidation conditions before choosing an action. A high confidence decision must cite primary evidence.
If the action contains an order intent, calculate quote-currency gross amount as quantity times unit price, then calculate base-currency gross amount using the stated FX rate. Do not estimate either total in prose.
Publish with:

clawock run publish --workspace <workspace> --request <request_file> --artifact decision.json=<workspace>/decision.json
If publication is rejected, repair only the named artifact issues and retry against the same prepared request. Re-run prepare if its context or workflow certificate changed.

The final receipt is the proof that one workflow version, certified context, and artifact generation passed the deterministic gates. It is supporting evidence, not a substitute for the decision itself.

Learn from outcomes

After the stated horizon, record broker, exchange, or market-data evidence using assets/outcome.example.json, then run clawock workflow evaluate. The result reconciles price and FX before assigning a direction-adjusted basis-point score; it is not realized portfolio P&L.

A runtime may use that evaluation or a rejected validation receipt to request a bounded parameter proposal with clawock workflow propose. The proposal cannot apply itself. A named reviewer must explicitly accept or reject the exact hash, and accepted changes go through workflow apply; workflow rollback restores the recorded prior parameters. See the decision contract for commands and the strict no-self-edit boundary.

Files (clawock)

agents

openai.yaml 234 B

interface:
  display_name: "Investment Decision"
  short_description: "Evidence-led investing with debate and reconciliation"
  default_prompt: "Use $investment-decision to produce and publish an evidence-linked investment decision."

assets

decision.example.json 1.6 KB

{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "workflow": {
    "id": "investment-decision",
    "version": "1.1.0"
  },
  "decision_id": "example-2026-08-08",
  "as_of": "2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",
  "subject": {
    "ticker": "EXAMPLE",
    "market": "US",
    "currency": "USD"
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "filing-growth",
      "stance": "supporting",
      "summary": "The latest filed revenue figure grew year over year.",
      "source": "issuer filing",
      "source_class": "primary",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T07:30:00+00:00"
    },
    {
      "id": "valuation-risk",
      "stance": "opposing",
      "summary": "The current market multiple is above its stated comparison range.",
      "source": "market data snapshot",
      "source_class": "market",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T07:45:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "debate": {
    "bull_case": {
      "summary": "Filed growth supports continued monitoring.",
      "evidence_ids": [
        "filing-growth"
      ]
    },
    "bear_case": {
      "summary": "Valuation leaves insufficient margin of safety for a new entry.",
      "evidence_ids": [
        "valuation-risk"
      ]
    }
  },
  "thesis": {
    "statement": "Business momentum is constructive, but price does not yet compensate for valuation risk.",
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "Filed growth reverses",
      "Valuation falls into the stated entry range"
    ]
  },
  "decision": {
    "action": "watch",
    "rationale": "The opposing valuation evidence blocks an entry despite constructive primary evidence.",
    "evidence_ids": [
      "filing-growth",
      "valuation-risk"
    ],
    "order": null
  }
}

order.example.json 2.2 KB

{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "workflow": {
    "id": "investment-decision",
    "version": "1.1.0"
  },
  "decision_id": "order-example-2026-08-08",
  "as_of": "2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",
  "subject": {
    "ticker": "0700",
    "market": "HK",
    "currency": "HKD"
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "filing-growth",
      "stance": "supporting",
      "summary": "The latest filed revenue figure grew year over year.",
      "source": "issuer filing",
      "source_class": "primary",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T07:30:00+00:00"
    },
    {
      "id": "sell-side-target",
      "stance": "supporting",
      "summary": "A broker's HK$450 target exceeds the entry level.",
      "source": "broker research note",
      "source_class": "secondary",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T07:35:00+00:00"
    },
    {
      "id": "valuation-risk",
      "stance": "opposing",
      "summary": "The trailing multiple is above the five-year range.",
      "source": "market data snapshot",
      "source_class": "market",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T07:45:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "debate": {
    "bull_case": {
      "summary": "Filed growth and a broker target support a funded entry.",
      "evidence_ids": [
        "filing-growth",
        "sell-side-target"
      ]
    },
    "bear_case": {
      "summary": "The valuation leaves limited margin of safety at the entry price.",
      "evidence_ids": [
        "valuation-risk"
      ]
    }
  },
  "thesis": {
    "statement": "Filing-confirmed growth plus a small size makes the valuation risk acceptable; invalidation conditions bound the downside.",
    "confidence": 0.7,
    "invalidation_conditions": [
      "Next filing misses revenue",
      "Close below the invalidation level"
    ]
  },
  "decision": {
    "action": "add",
    "rationale": "Primary evidence supports growth; the small add and invalidation conditions bound the valuation risk.",
    "evidence_ids": [
      "filing-growth",
      "valuation-risk"
    ],
    "order": {
      "side": "buy",
      "quantity": "200",
      "unit_price": "310.00",
      "quote_currency": "HKD",
      "gross_amount_quote": "62000.00",
      "base_currency": "HKD",
      "fx_quote_to_base": "1",
      "gross_amount_base": "62000.00"
    }
  }
}

outcome.example.json 478 B

{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "workflow": {
    "id": "investment-decision",
    "version": "1.1.0"
  },
  "decision_id": "example-2026-08-08",
  "observed_at": "2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",
  "evidence": {
    "source": "broker closing-price export",
    "source_class": "broker",
    "quote_currency": "USD",
    "entry_price": "100.00",
    "outcome_price": "102.00",
    "base_currency": "HKD",
    "entry_fx_quote_to_base": "7.80",
    "outcome_fx_quote_to_base": "7.81"
  }
}

references

decision-contract.md 4.6 KB

# Decision artifact contract

`decision.json` is the single required artifact for workflow version `1.1.0`.
Unknown or missing fields are rejected so a producer cannot silently invent a
parallel schema.

The machine-readable shape is `decision.schema.json` in this directory. JSON
Schema covers structure and primitive types; clawock's Python validator adds the
cross-reference, provenance, opposing-evidence, action/order and arithmetic
invariants that JSON Schema cannot express.

## Top-level fields

- `schema_version`: integer `1`.
- `workflow`: exactly `{"id":"investment-decision","version":"1.1.0"}`.
- `decision_id`: stable non-empty identifier chosen by the calling runtime.
- `as_of`: ISO-8601 timestamp with timezone.
- `subject`: `ticker`, `market`, and quote `currency` strings.
- `evidence`: traceable evidence rows.
- `debate`: one bull and one bear case, each linked to evidence IDs.
- `thesis`: statement, confidence from 0 to 1, and non-empty invalidation conditions.
- `decision`: bounded action, rationale, evidence links, and optional order intent.

## Evidence

Each row contains exactly:

- `id`: unique non-empty string.
- `stance`: `supporting`, `opposing`, or `context`.
- `summary`: the observed fact, not an unsupported conclusion.
- `source`: a stable locator or source name.
- `source_class`: `primary`, `secondary`, `market`, or `agent`.
- `observed_at`: ISO-8601 timestamp with timezone, no later than `as_of`.

The bull case must cite supporting evidence and the bear case must cite opposing
evidence. Every cited ID must exist. The configured workflow parameters control
minimum evidence counts and the maximum confidence allowed without a cited
primary source.

## Decision and order intent

`action` is one of `buy`, `add`, `hold`, `watch`, `trim`, `sell`, `exit`, or
`abstain`. `hold`, `watch`, and `abstain` carry `order: null`. Other actions
carry an order with exactly:

- `side`: `buy` or `sell`, consistent with the action.
- `quantity`, `unit_price`, `gross_amount_quote`.
- `quote_currency`, `base_currency`.
- `fx_quote_to_base`, `gross_amount_base`.

All numeric values must be positive and finite. clawock reconciles the two money
identities to currency cents:

`gross_amount_quote = quantity * unit_price`

`gross_amount_base = gross_amount_quote * fx_quote_to_base`

See `assets/decision.example.json` for a complete watch decision, and
`assets/order.example.json` for an order-carrying decision with both money
identities reconciled.

## Outcome evidence and evaluation

Copy `assets/outcome.example.json`, preserve the decision/workflow identifiers,
and replace the price, FX, timestamp, and source fields with observed evidence.
Then run:

```bash
clawock workflow evaluate investment-decision \
  --decision decision.json --outcome outcome.json --output evaluation.json
```

The evaluator calculates quote-currency and base-currency market moves in basis
points. `decision_value_bps` applies +1 to long/hold decisions, -1 to
trim/sell/exit decisions, and 0 to watch/abstain. This is a reproducible
directional evaluation, not realized P&L; portfolio cash, fills, fees, taxes and
position size remain outside this artifact.

## Bounded improvement

An external runtime or human can propose only parameters already bounded by
`workflow.json`:

```bash
clawock workflow propose --workspace . --trigger evaluation.json \
  --set min_opposing_evidence=2 \
  --rationale "Weak opposing evidence preceded the measured miss." \
  --expected-effect "Require a second independent opposing source." \
  --output proposal.json

clawock workflow review --proposal proposal.json --decision accepted \
  --reviewer analyst@example --note "Evidence supports a bounded trial." \
  --output review.json

clawock workflow apply --workspace . --proposal proposal.json --review review.json
clawock workflow rollback --workspace . --change-id <change-id>
```

The trigger can also be a rejected `clawock run publish` receipt. A proposal
pins the workflow version/certificate, trigger hash, old/new values and expected
effect. Apply refuses rejected or mismatched reviews, stale parameters, unknown
settings and values outside their declared bounds. Rollback refuses to overwrite
later parameter drift.

This loop never launches a model, edits `SKILL.md`, changes OpenClaw memory/chat
behavior or accepts its own proposal. Reasoning stays in the external runtime;
clawock owns the evidence link, deterministic math and reversible adoption
record.

The bounded parameters change workflow evidence strictness only. They do not
introduce or tune quantitative factors, catalysts, signals, entry/exit rules or
portfolio construction; those remain part of the caller's existing strategy.

decision.schema.json 4.5 KB

{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "$id": "urn:clawock:workflow:investment-decision:1.1.0:decision",
  "title": "clawock investment decision",
  "type": "object",
  "additionalProperties": false,
  "required": [
    "schema_version",
    "workflow",
    "decision_id",
    "as_of",
    "subject",
    "evidence",
    "debate",
    "thesis",
    "decision"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "schema_version": {
      "const": 1
    },
    "workflow": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["id", "version"],
      "properties": {
        "id": {"const": "investment-decision"},
        "version": {"const": "1.1.0"}
      }
    },
    "decision_id": {
      "type": "string",
      "minLength": 1
    },
    "as_of": {
      "type": "string",
      "format": "date-time"
    },
    "subject": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["ticker", "market", "currency"],
      "properties": {
        "ticker": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "market": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "currency": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1}
      }
    },
    "evidence": {
      "type": "array",
      "items": {"$ref": "#/$defs/evidence"}
    },
    "debate": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["bull_case", "bear_case"],
      "properties": {
        "bull_case": {"$ref": "#/$defs/case"},
        "bear_case": {"$ref": "#/$defs/case"}
      }
    },
    "thesis": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["statement", "confidence", "invalidation_conditions"],
      "properties": {
        "statement": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "confidence": {"type": "number", "minimum": 0, "maximum": 1},
        "invalidation_conditions": {
          "type": "array",
          "minItems": 1,
          "items": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1}
        }
      }
    },
    "decision": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["action", "rationale", "evidence_ids", "order"],
      "properties": {
        "action": {
          "enum": ["buy", "add", "hold", "watch", "trim", "sell", "exit", "abstain"]
        },
        "rationale": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "evidence_ids": {
          "type": "array",
          "minItems": 1,
          "uniqueItems": true,
          "items": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1}
        },
        "order": {
          "oneOf": [
            {"type": "null"},
            {"$ref": "#/$defs/order"}
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "$defs": {
    "evidence": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["id", "stance", "summary", "source", "source_class", "observed_at"],
      "properties": {
        "id": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "stance": {"enum": ["supporting", "opposing", "context"]},
        "summary": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "source": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "source_class": {"enum": ["primary", "secondary", "market", "agent"]},
        "observed_at": {"type": "string", "format": "date-time"}
      }
    },
    "case": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["summary", "evidence_ids"],
      "properties": {
        "summary": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "evidence_ids": {
          "type": "array",
          "minItems": 1,
          "uniqueItems": true,
          "items": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1}
        }
      }
    },
    "positive-number": {
      "oneOf": [
        {"type": "number", "exclusiveMinimum": 0},
        {"type": "string", "pattern": "^(?:0*[1-9][0-9]*(?:\\.[0-9]+)?|0*\\.[0-9]*[1-9][0-9]*)$"}
      ]
    },
    "order": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "side",
        "quantity",
        "unit_price",
        "quote_currency",
        "gross_amount_quote",
        "base_currency",
        "fx_quote_to_base",
        "gross_amount_base"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "side": {"enum": ["buy", "sell"]},
        "quantity": {"$ref": "#/$defs/positive-number"},
        "unit_price": {"$ref": "#/$defs/positive-number"},
        "quote_currency": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "gross_amount_quote": {"$ref": "#/$defs/positive-number"},
        "base_currency": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "fx_quote_to_base": {"$ref": "#/$defs/positive-number"},
        "gross_amount_base": {"$ref": "#/$defs/positive-number"}
      }
    }
  }
}

improvement-proposal.schema.json 1.8 KB

{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "$id": "urn:clawock:workflow:investment-decision:1.1.0:improvement-proposal",
  "title": "clawock bounded workflow improvement proposal",
  "type": "object",
  "additionalProperties": false,
  "required": [
    "schema_version", "kind", "proposal_id", "created_at", "workflow",
    "trigger", "changes", "rationale", "expected_effect"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "schema_version": {"const": 1},
    "kind": {"const": "workflow-improvement-proposal"},
    "proposal_id": {"type": "string", "pattern": "^[0-9a-f]{32}$"},
    "created_at": {"type": "string", "format": "date-time"},
    "workflow": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["id", "version", "certificate", "parameters"],
      "properties": {
        "id": {"const": "investment-decision"},
        "version": {"const": "1.1.0"},
        "certificate": {"type": "string", "pattern": "^[0-9a-f]{64}$"},
        "parameters": {"type": "object"}
      }
    },
    "trigger": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["kind", "id", "sha256"],
      "properties": {
        "kind": {"enum": ["outcome_evaluation", "validation_receipt"]},
        "id": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "sha256": {"type": "string", "pattern": "^[0-9a-f]{64}$"}
      }
    },
    "changes": {
      "type": "object",
      "minProperties": 1,
      "additionalProperties": {
        "type": "object",
        "additionalProperties": false,
        "required": ["before", "after"],
        "properties": {
          "before": {"type": "number"},
          "after": {"type": "number"}
        }
      }
    },
    "rationale": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
    "expected_effect": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1}
  }
}

outcome.schema.json 1.8 KB

{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "$id": "urn:clawock:workflow:investment-decision:1.1.0:outcome",
  "title": "clawock investment decision outcome evidence",
  "type": "object",
  "additionalProperties": false,
  "required": ["schema_version", "workflow", "decision_id", "observed_at", "evidence"],
  "properties": {
    "schema_version": {"const": 1},
    "workflow": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": ["id", "version"],
      "properties": {
        "id": {"const": "investment-decision"},
        "version": {"const": "1.1.0"}
      }
    },
    "decision_id": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
    "observed_at": {"type": "string", "format": "date-time"},
    "evidence": {
      "type": "object",
      "additionalProperties": false,
      "required": [
        "source", "source_class", "quote_currency", "entry_price",
        "outcome_price", "base_currency", "entry_fx_quote_to_base",
        "outcome_fx_quote_to_base"
      ],
      "properties": {
        "source": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "source_class": {"enum": ["broker", "exchange", "market_data"]},
        "quote_currency": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "entry_price": {"$ref": "#/$defs/positive-number"},
        "outcome_price": {"$ref": "#/$defs/positive-number"},
        "base_currency": {"type": "string", "minLength": 1},
        "entry_fx_quote_to_base": {"$ref": "#/$defs/positive-number"},
        "outcome_fx_quote_to_base": {"$ref": "#/$defs/positive-number"}
      }
    }
  },
  "$defs": {
    "positive-number": {
      "oneOf": [
        {"type": "number", "exclusiveMinimum": 0},
        {"type": "string", "pattern": "^(?:0*[1-9][0-9]*(?:\\.[0-9]+)?|0*\\.[0-9]*[1-9][0-9]*)$"}
      ]
    }
  }
}

SKILL.md 2.8 KB

---
name: investment-decision
description: Produce an evidence-linked investment decision with an explicit bull case, opposing bear case, thesis invalidation conditions, bounded action, and reconciled order/FX amounts. Use when an agent must analyze a security or portfolio action and publish a verifiable decision artifact through clawock.
---

# Investment decision workflow

Use this workflow inside the current agent runtime. Do not launch another agent
or model through clawock: the current runtime owns research, conversation,
memory, skills, tools, repair loops, and permissions.

## Run

1. Run `clawock run prepare --workspace <workspace>` and retain the printed
   `request_file`, `run_id`, `generation_id`, workflow version, and certified
   context.
2. Research with the current runtime's normal tools. Collect traceable evidence
   observed no later than the decision's `as_of` time.
3. Write `decision.json` using
   [the decision contract](references/decision-contract.md) and its linked JSON
   Schema. Include at least one
   supporting and one opposing evidence item. The bull and bear cases must cite
   their evidence rather than merely asserting conclusions.
4. State thesis invalidation conditions before choosing an action. A high
   confidence decision must cite primary evidence.
5. If the action contains an order intent, calculate quote-currency gross amount
   as quantity times unit price, then calculate base-currency gross amount using
   the stated FX rate. Do not estimate either total in prose.
6. Publish with:

   `clawock run publish --workspace <workspace> --request <request_file> --artifact decision.json=<workspace>/decision.json`

7. If publication is rejected, repair only the named artifact issues and retry
   against the same prepared request. Re-run prepare if its context or workflow
   certificate changed.

The final receipt is the proof that one workflow version, certified context, and
artifact generation passed the deterministic gates. It is supporting evidence,
not a substitute for the decision itself.

## Learn from outcomes

After the stated horizon, record broker, exchange, or market-data evidence using
`assets/outcome.example.json`, then run `clawock workflow evaluate`. The result
reconciles price and FX before assigning a direction-adjusted basis-point score;
it is not realized portfolio P&L.

A runtime may use that evaluation or a rejected validation receipt to request a
bounded parameter proposal with `clawock workflow propose`. The proposal cannot
apply itself. A named reviewer must explicitly accept or reject the exact hash,
and accepted changes go through `workflow apply`; `workflow rollback` restores
the recorded prior parameters. See
[the decision contract](references/decision-contract.md) for commands and the
strict no-self-edit boundary.

workflow.json 2.3 KB

{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "id": "investment-decision",
  "version": "1.1.0",
  "title": "Investment Decision",
  "description": "Turn traceable evidence and an explicit opposing case into a bounded investment decision with deterministic order and FX reconciliation.",
  "task": "Produce decision.json for an evidence-linked investment decision. Include a genuine opposing case, thesis invalidation conditions, a bounded action, and exactly reconciled order and FX amounts when an order is proposed.",
  "skill": "SKILL.md",
  "stages": [
    {
      "id": "evidence",
      "owner": "external-runtime",
      "output": "traceable supporting, opposing, and contextual evidence"
    },
    {
      "id": "debate",
      "owner": "external-runtime",
      "output": "bull and bear cases linked to evidence"
    },
    {
      "id": "decision",
      "owner": "external-runtime",
      "output": "thesis, invalidation conditions, action, and optional order intent"
    },
    {
      "id": "validate-reconcile-publish",
      "owner": "clawock",
      "output": "validation issues or a generation-pinned publication receipt"
    }
  ],
  "artifacts": {
    "required": [
      "decision.json"
    ],
    "optional": []
  },
  "schemas": {
    "decision.json": "references/decision.schema.json",
    "outcome.json": "references/outcome.schema.json",
    "improvement-proposal.json": "references/improvement-proposal.schema.json"
  },
  "feedback": {
    "outcome": "outcome.json",
    "evaluation": "clawock workflow evaluate",
    "bounded_parameters": [
      "min_supporting_evidence",
      "min_opposing_evidence",
      "max_confidence_without_primary_source"
    ],
    "adoption": ["review", "apply", "rollback"]
  },
  "parameters": {
    "min_supporting_evidence": {
      "type": "integer",
      "default": 1,
      "minimum": 1,
      "maximum": 5,
      "description": "Minimum distinct evidence items supporting the thesis."
    },
    "min_opposing_evidence": {
      "type": "integer",
      "default": 1,
      "minimum": 1,
      "maximum": 5,
      "description": "Minimum distinct evidence items opposing the thesis."
    },
    "max_confidence_without_primary_source": {
      "type": "number",
      "default": 0.65,
      "minimum": 0.5,
      "maximum": 0.85,
      "description": "Maximum thesis confidence when the decision cites no primary source."
    }
  }
}