{"slug":"scenario-analyzer","title":"scenario-analyzer","summary":"Analyze news headlines, policy announcements, or geopolitical events to build 18-month probabilistic scenarios for Indian markets. Use when the user provides a headline or asks about the market impact of RBI policy, government announcements, global events, budget, or sector-speci","platform":"Claude","tags":[],"authorName":"LLM Mart","authorSlug":"llm-mart","score":0,"source":"github","price":null,"verified":false,"createdAt":"2026-08-23T10:48:58.541983Z","repo":{"url":"https://github.com/ajeeshworkspace/indian-trading-skills","stars":73,"forks":47,"license":"MIT","updatedAt":"2026-08-23T10:12:05Z"},"bodyHtml":"
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name: scenario-analyzer\ndescription: Analyze news headlines, policy announcements, or geopolitical events to build 18-month probabilistic scenarios for Indian markets. Use when the user provides a headline or asks about the market impact of RBI policy, government announcements, global events, budget, or sector-specific news on NSE/BSE stocks.

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Scenario Analyzer (India Markets)

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Overview

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This skill takes a news headline or event and builds probabilistic 18-month scenarios with cascading 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order sector impacts and specific stock recommendations for the Indian market.

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Architecture

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Skill (Orchestrator)\n├── Phase 1: Preparation\n│   ├── Headline parsing (keywords, entities, actions, numbers)\n│   ├── Event classification\n│   └── Load references\n├── Phase 2: Analysis\n│   ├── Collect related news (past 2 weeks via WebSearch)\n│   ├── Build 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear, probabilities sum to 100%)\n│   ├── Map 1°/2°/3° sector impacts\n│   └── Identify 3-5 positive + 3-5 negative impact stocks\n└── Phase 3: Report Generation\n    ├── Compile findings\n    ├── Assess scenario probability distribution\n    └── Save report\n
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Event Classification

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Classify the headline into one of these categories:

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CategoryIndian Context Examples
Monetary PolicyRBI rate decision, CRR/SLR change, liquidity measures
Fiscal PolicyUnion Budget, GST changes, PLI schemes, disinvestment
GeopoliticalIndia-China border, India-Pakistan, Russia-Ukraine, Middle East
CommodityCrude oil shock, gold prices, metal tariffs, food inflation
RegulatorySEBI rules, RBI NPA norms, telecom spectrum, pharma FDA
CorporateMajor M&A, earnings surprise, promoter pledging, fraud
Global MacroFed rate decision, US recession, China slowdown, tariffs
Weather/AgricultureMonsoon forecast, crop damage, food prices
Elections/PoliticalState elections, central govt policy shifts
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Workflow

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Phase 1: Preparation

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  1. Parse the Headline

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    2. \n

  2. Load References

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    Read: references/headline_event_patterns.md\nRead: references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md\nRead: references/scenario_playbooks.md\n
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    3. \n
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Phase 2: Analysis

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  1. Collect Context

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    2. \n

  2. Build 3 Scenarios

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    For each scenario:

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    Typical structure:

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  3. Map Sector Impacts

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    For each scenario, assess impacts using the sector sensitivity matrix:

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    OrderDefinitionExample (RBI Rate Cut)
    1stDirect, immediateBanks: NIM compression, Housing: demand boost
    2ndIndirect, 3-6 monthsAuto: loan demand, Real estate: prices
    3rdTertiary, 6-18 monthsCement: construction demand, Durables: consumer spending
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    Use NSE sectoral indices:

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    4. \n

  4. Identify Stock Impacts

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    For each scenario:

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    For each stock, provide:

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    5. \n
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Phase 3: Report Generation

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  1. Generate Report

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    Save as reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md with sections:

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    1. Related News (5-10 recent articles with sources)
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    2. Scenario Overview (3 scenarios with probabilities)
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    3. Timeline (0-6m, 6-12m, 12-18m phases for base case)
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    4. Sector Impact Matrix (1°/2°/3° impacts per sector)
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    5. Positive Impact Stocks (3-5 with rationale)
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    6. Negative Impact Stocks (3-5 with rationale)
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    7. Investment Implications (actionable takeaways)
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    8. Risk to Scenarios (what could shift probabilities)
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    9. Disclaimer
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    2. \n
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Quality Standards

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Example Usage

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User: \"RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps to 6%\"\n\nAnalyst:\n1. Classification: Monetary Policy\n2. Key entities: RBI, repo rate, 25 bps, 6%\n3. Collects recent RBI commentary and market expectations\n4. Scenarios:\n   - Base (50%): One more cut expected → banks pass on, housing demand rises\n   - Bull (30%): Cycle of 75-100 bps cuts → strong credit growth, equity rally\n   - Bear (20%): Global inflation returns → RBI pauses → rate-sensitive sell-off\n5. 1° impacts: Banks, NBFCs, Housing Finance, Auto\n6. 2° impacts: Real Estate, Consumer Durables\n7. 3° impacts: Cement, Infrastructure\n8. Stock picks: HDFCBANK, BAJFINANCE, GODREJPROP (positive); IT exporters if INR weakens\n
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Resources

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references/headline_event_patterns.md

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Historical Indian market event patterns and reactions.

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references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md

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Event type × NSE sector impact matrix.

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references/scenario_playbooks.md

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Scenario construction templates with Indian market context.

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